With the matchup for Super Bowl LX officially set between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, the focus naturally shifts to individual accolades, particularly the Pete Rozelle Trophy awarded to the game’s Most Valuable Player. The opening MVP odds present a compelling narrative, heavily favoring the quarterbacks but leaving room for a potential surprise. This analysis breaks down the current betting landscape, the profiles of the leading candidates, and the historical context that shapes this prestigious award.
Current Super Bowl MVP Odds Landscape
As of late January 2026, the MVP oddsboard is tightly clustered at the top, reflecting the expectation of a quarterback-centric award but acknowledging the playmakers who could steal the spotlight. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold sits as the clear favorite, followed by New England’s Drake Maye. The short list is rounded out by Seattle’s offensive weapons, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III, with Patriots’ running back Rhamondre Stevenson and receiver Rashid Shaheed representing longer-shot value. The odds solidify a trend: the award is typically won by a player on the victorious team, making the Seahawks’ roster the primary pool for contenders given their status as early game favorites.
Sam Darnold: The Resurgent Favorite
Sam Darnold’s journey to the top of the Super Bowl MVP odds is one of the season’s most remarkable stories. Once labeled a draft bust, the Seattle quarterback has orchestrated a career resurgence, culminating in a spectacular NFC Championship performance. His stat line of 346 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams was a masterclass in precision and poise under pressure. Darnold’s odds are fueled not just by that single game, but by his consistent play throughout Seattle’s playoff run and the overarching historical bias: quarterbacks have won the award 34 times in 59 Super Bowls. A Seattle victory almost certainly requires a strong performance from Darnold, making him the logical frontrunner.
Drake Maye: The Sophomore Sensation
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye occupies the second spot on the oddsboard, representing the AFC’s best chance for MVP honors. Maye’s second season has been a breakout, establishing him as one of the league’s most accurate passers and a dynamic dual-threat. While his playoff statistics have been modest—most notably a 10-for-21, 86-yard passing effort in the snowy AFC Championship—his potential for a explosive game is undeniable. An MVP award for Maye would likely necessitate a Patriots upset, coupled with a stat-heavy performance where his arm and legs are the driving force behind the victory. He remains the consensus choice should New England hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
The Premier Playmakers: JSN and Walker
If the MVP award deviates from the quarterback path, Seattle’s offensive arsenal holds the most probable alternatives. Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been Darnold’s primary target all season, a connection that peaked in the NFC title game with a 10-catch, 153-yard showcase. A similar dominant performance on the Super Bowl stage, especially if it includes critical, highlight-reel touchdowns, could sway voters. Similarly, running back Kenneth “K9” Walker III presents a formidable threat. A multi-touchdown game, particularly with significant yardage, would echo the efforts of past non-QB MVPs. Their paths to the award typically involve not only stellar individual numbers but also a game-breaking play that defines the contest.
Understanding the Betting Context and Line Movement
The MVP market is intrinsically linked to the game’s point spread and moneyline. The Seahawks opened as a 3.5-point favorite, a line that quickly moved to -4.5 or -5 at most sportsbooks, indicating sharp and public money backing Seattle. This movement reinforces Darnold’s position at the top of the MVP board. Furthermore, the game total opened around 45.5 and has been bet up to 46.5 or 47, suggesting oddsmakers and bettors anticipate more offensive production than initially projected—a scenario that benefits the skill-position candidates on both sides. Bettors must consider that MVP wagers are effectively a two-part bet: on the player’s performance *and* on his team winning the game.
Historical Precedent for Super Bowl MVP
History is a powerful indicator for future MVP outcomes. The award has been overwhelmingly quarterback-friendly, with the signal-caller winning in nearly 58% of all Super Bowls. The last non-quarterback to win was Cooper Kupp in 2022 (Super Bowl LVI), a reminder that a dominant wide receiver can break through. Running backs have won eight times, but not since Terrell Davis in 1998. Defensive players have claimed the award five times, though it has been over two decades since the feat was accomplished. This historical lens makes betting against a quarterback a contrarian—though sometimes lucrative—play, and heavily informs the structure of the current odds.
Key Factors That Will Decide the MVP Race
Several in-game dynamics will ultimately determine the MVP winner. The battle in the trenches is paramount; whichever offensive line provides better protection will directly boost their quarterback’s candidacy. Turnovers are a critical, often disqualifying factor—a multi-interception game is typically a death knell for a QB’s MVP hopes. Furthermore, the flow of the game matters. A close, back-and-forth contest favors a quarterback who engineers a game-winning drive. A lopsided Seahawks victory could open the door for Walker or Smith-Njigba with accumulated stats in a runaway win. Conversely, a Patriots upset anchored by their defense could make a linebacker or safety a true “field” candidate, though such a scenario remains a long shot on the board.
FAQ
Who is favored to win Super Bowl MVP in 2026?
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is the current favorite, with odds around +130. His performance in the NFC Championship Game and Seattle’s status as team favorites position him at the top of the board.
How often does a quarterback win Super Bowl MVP?
Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP award 34 times in the game’s 59-year history, making them the most common recipients by a significant margin.
Can a player from the losing team win MVP?
Yes, it is possible, but it is extremely rare. It has only happened once, when Dallas Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley won MVP in Super Bowl V despite his team’s loss.
What are Drake Maye’s MVP odds?
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is the second favorite, with odds typically around +235. He is considered the most likely winner if the Patriots secure an upset victory.
Who was the last non-quarterback to win Super Bowl MVP?
The last non-quarterback winner was Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who earned the honor following Super Bowl LVI at the end of the 2021 season.
How is the Super Bowl MVP decided?
The winner is selected by a panel of 16 media members (writers and broadcasters) and through a fan vote conducted by the NFL. The media vote counts for 80% and the fan vote for 20% of the final tally.
What is a good long-shot MVP bet for Super Bowl 60?
Based on current odds, Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550 to +600) or running back Kenneth Walker III (+600 to +650) offer value if you believe Seattle wins without a standout passing game from Darnold.
Do defensive players ever win Super Bowl MVP?
Yes, but it is uncommon. A defensive player has won the award five times, with the most recent being Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Dexter Jackson in Super Bowl XXXVII (2003).
How do team odds affect MVP odds?
They are directly correlated. The MVP almost always comes from the winning team, so the favorites for the award are invariably key players on the team favored to win the game (currently the Seahawks).
Where can I bet on Super Bowl MVP odds?
Legal, regulated sportsbooks in your state or jurisdiction, both online and retail, will offer Super Bowl MVP betting markets. Always ensure you are using a licensed operator.
Verdict
The 2026 Super Bowl MVP race is shaping up to be a classic duel between narrative and precedent. Sam Darnold’s remarkable redemption story and stellar playoff form make him the justified favorite, with the statistical likelihood of a quarterback winner firmly on his side. However, Drake Maye possesses the singular talent to author an upset script that would inevitably crown him MVP. While Seattle’ elite playmakers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III, present compelling value and a clear path to the award, history advises that betting against the quarterback—especially the one leading the favored team—is a proposition that has defied odds for decades. The smart money aligns with the trends, positioning Darnold as the most probable recipient, but the unique pressures of the Super Bowl stage always leave room for an unforgettable performance that rewrites the expected ending.
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